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Predictions for when the economy will turn around predict anywhere from the fourth quarter of 2009 to the third quarter of 2010.  Certain economic indicators have already begun to show signs of improvement, but recovery is not going to happen overnight.  As of July, unemployment is still high, but the number of people becoming unemployed and applying for benefits has slowed.  Sales of housing are turning around, and while the numbers are down, they are improving.  Global manufacturing figures have begun to rise, giving hope that the worst has been seen in that industry.  Consumer confidence is up in most regions in New York State compared to the first quarter of the year.

Preparing for the economic turnaround is as important as situating your business to fight the recession. “The US economy tends to grow. Since 1947, a period of 61 years or 247 quarters, US gross domestic product (GDP) declined a total of 38 times, or slightly more than 15%. In the 209 quarters that GDP has expanded, the average increase was 4.5%, while the average decline in the 38 down quarters was 2.7%. On average, the economy expands 5.5 quarters for every one quarter it declines. So, while we may be struggling today, there is no question the economy will pull out of it and grow again, probably starting next year.” (Cushman & Wakefield, Economic Pulse, November 2008)

For more information:

General Information about the American Recovery and Reinvestment Act of 2009
American Recovery and Reinvestment Act of 2009 and New York State
American Recovery and Reinvestment Act of 2009 and Small Business

Do you want to know more about what you can do as a business owner during times of economic downturn?

The librarians of the New York SBDC have put together a list of some helpful articles and resources here: Information you find business solutions during an economic downturn

Get other great advice from New York SBDC advisors in the following resources:

"Smart Moves in a Bad Economy" by C.J. Prince in the December 2008 issue of Entrepreneur quotes Ira Davidson, director of the Pace University Small Business Development Center.

"Marketing in a Troubled Economy" (video) Part 1 Part 2 Part 3, featuring Lucille Wesnofske and Ritu Wackett of the Farmingdale SBDC

"Expert Suggests Entrepreneurs Turn to Small Banks for Loans" (video) featuring Catalina Castaño of the Pace University SBDC

"The Credit Squeeze on Small Business" (video) featuring Tom Morley of the Westchester SBDC


Recession Survival Guide for Small Business